The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), which passed in December 2017, made fundamental changes to the U.S. tax code, and 2018 returns were the first time most taxpayers could see the practical impact of these changes.
In an April 2019 Gallup poll, 43% of Americans said they were unsure how the new tax law affected them personally. Surprisingly, 21% thought their federal income taxes went up in 2018, and 21% said they were about the same. Only 14% of respondents reported that their taxes went down, even though independent analyses and preliminary tax filing data suggested that about two-thirds of Americans would owe less in federal taxes in 2018.1-2
One reason for this apparent confusion might be because taxpayers tend to pay little attention to employer withholding, and any potential increase in take-home pay may have been less noticeable when divided into weekly (or biweekly) paychecks. It's also possible that many respondents didn't take the time to compare their tax burdens to the previous year and/or may not know how to do so. Despite a stated effort to simplify the federal withholding and tax filing process, the tax code is still complex, and many taxpayers don't understand the details and terminology.